Benjamin Kowalsky
Sep 10th 2010

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I love numbers. They tell you a lot about a match before it starts. Each of my predictions have been correct as to the result, but not about the final score. So lets take a look here at whats up between the Rapids and the Red Bulls, regarding team numbers alone.


The Rapids offense has, since the past two games, become one of the most efficient machines in the MLS. Our shots number 241, and our goals are at 28. That means, statistically, given any shot whatsoever, it has about a 12% chance of being a goal. Not bad, but heres where it gets fun.

Compare that to Red Bull. Even with Juan Pablo Angel and now Henry up top (not fair, I know, since he just started playing). You have 258 shots on goal, and only 25 goals. Youre looking at about a 10% chance of any shot being a goal. Thats not very much distance between the two sides there.

Rapids have 90 Shots On Goal. Those are 90 really good chances. Then youre looking at about a One-In-Three chance that the chance is going to become a goal.

Red Bull have 91 Shots On Goal. Take 25 out of that... looks like about a 27% chance to get in there.

Theres a slight advantage in the Rapids. Given the recent form of Colorados offensive machine, Id say that advantage becomes even greater.


This is where were going to see the biggest difference. Colorado is so efficient not because of the offense, but because of the tight defending. In this category, like with most other teams in MLS, Colorado is at least one full leap ahead of the competition.

The Colorado Defense has allowed only 83 Shots on goal, 62 of which were saved by the keeper. for a total percentage of almost 75% of shots saved.

The NYRB Defense, not so good: 100 Shots on goal allowed. 77 of which were saved. Total percentage is 77%. Bouna is a good keeper, but its the line in front of him thats the problem. Theyve allowed 17 more shots on goal than Colorado. And with Casey and Cummings now coming into form, this is not a good statistic for the Red Bull Defense.

The Defensive advantage is decidedly for the Rapids.

Since we are in New Yorks House, that is going to work itself out to at least one goal for the Bulls. So one to them, but I dont see another one happening. They have Henry, and Marquez, and Angel, but teams win games. Colorado, by the numbers, is the better team.

Colorado. Oh Colorado. Can you keep up the 3 goals? I dont think so here. I predict at least 1 goal from Colorado. At least one. And if I had to place bets, Id put the most money on a 1-1 draw. However, given the recent form of Colorado, I am pretty confident that a good outside bet would be 2-1 Colorado.

Thats the numbers, people. Colorado has had a great record in the Big Apple. Lets hope they can keep it up, even against the titans of Henry, Angel, and Marquez.

My suggestion would be that Julien Baudet, when marking Theirry Henry, whispers ever so softly "Domenech. Domenech. Domenech. Domenech." to frighten Henry into making careless mistakes.